“Status-quo can’t be maintained on line of contact”
Politologist Sergey Minasyan is more than certain that EU High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security Catherine Ashton's predictions for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution won't come true, meaning that the sides won't reach an agreement on the Basic Principles by the end of this year.
"We've heard similar statements several times in the past two decades. Even in the case of the best optimism, when it comes to the Basic Principles, that requires a long time," Mr. Minasyan told "A1+".
Minasyan says it is impossible to talk about compromises, accepting as a basis the existing discrepancies between the positions of both sides.
"The international community is concerned about Azerbaijan's war threats and is trying to find ways of maintaining stability."
The politologist also says he doesn't share Ashton's statement that it is inacceptable to maintain the status-quo.
"We must find out which status-quo Mrs. Ashton is referring to-the borders of the conflict or the conflict that exists on the line of contact."
According to him, any speedy resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will lead to greater tension for all sides.
"Nobody should think that the change of borders will increase the level of stability. In this sense, I tend to think that the European organizations are ready to become more involved in preventing incidents on the line of contact. "
The politologist notices a reduction of incidents on the line of contact after the meeting in Kazan. "Azerbaijan has come to realize that it will pay a higher price for incidents."
Mr. Minasyan doesn't believe Russia will cede its place to France, which has become rather active these days.
"Even if Russia cedes its place to France, Russia will still have a major role in the process. The role that Russia has in the process is the result of consensus between all sides."
After the Russian-Georgian war, the politologist says it is normal for Russia to play the role that it is playing in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution.
"Russia didn't achieve any results in Kazan, but Russia's important achievement is that it is maintaining the ceasefire regime in the conflict zone. I think Russia is the side that is most interested in maintaining the ceasefire regime; otherwise, Russia will be forced to choose between Armenia-its ally-and Azerbaijan-its important partner in the energy sphere."
Sergey Minasyan says even if France becomes active, there won't be any fundamental change in the process.
"Russia will try to continue the process since that has turned into a personal matter for President Medvedev. Azerbaijan's posture in Kazan gave Russia something to think about."
The politologist doesn't believe the co-chairs' upcoming visit to the region will change anything in the process of negotiations. "The process will simply change."
