“KARABAKH CONFLICT SETTLEMENT DEPENDS ON ARMENIAN SIDE”

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“Even the highest ranking RA officials don’t understand the essence of the NKR conflict,” says former RA Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutyunyan. Commenting on the Meindorf declaration upon the request of “A1+”, Vagharshak Harutyunyan noted that the main idea of this document is that it leaves barely any chances for military development of the conflict. According to him, Azerbaijan is preparing to solve the issue by force.

“If you recall, Azerbaijan defended Georgia’s actions on the first day of the South Osetian conflict and if Georgia were to proceed successfully and seize Osetia, it could not be excluded that military operations would restart in Karabakh. That is why the declaration is a means of prevention.”

As far as the flaws of the declaration are concerned, Harutyunyan believes that one of the flaws is the lack of signatory of NKR.

“We have been on the same road since 1998 when it was declared that Karabakh has used up all its potential in the peace talks. The Armenian side is to blame. Azerbaijan benefits from the absence of Artsakh because that changes the format of the conflict. The two sides are trying to find a resolution to the trilateral conflict without a main subject. There are times when the Armenian side declares that it may step out of the negotiations and Azerbaijan will be forced to sit down to negotiate with NKR; yet this goes to show that even the high-ranking Armenian officials don’t understand the essence of the conflict. The war took place not only in NKR, but also in the bordering regions of Armenia; thus, NKR must solve its issues with Azerbaijan. Of course, Armenia must be Artsakh’s security warrant, but Armenia shouldn’t discuss the Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan. The status issue, concessions-all of these are issues that must be discussed with NKR,” told “A1+” the former Defense Minister.

As for the handover of lands, Harutyunyan said:

“If we concede anything, we must receive Azerbaijan’s response in return. What have we achieved in the process? We declare that we are ready to concede lands in exchange for Karabakh’s independenc. Has the Azeri side agreed to that? No, it hasn’t and that is the end of discussion. This is the evaluation of the negotiations process-Armenia concedes everything without even getting a promise to discuss the issue of Karabakh independence or self-determination. If Azerbaijan doesn’t concede anything, there is no sense in talking about concessions.”

INTERIM RESOLUTION: KEY TO REINFORCEMENT OF POSITIONS

According to Vagharshak Harutyunyan, the main issue of the co-chairs today is not the final resolution of the conflict, but the allocation of peacekeeping forces, which is to the benefit of their countries.

“This issue must be observed in the context of fight for the region. The co-chairing countries realize the lack of opportunity for a real conflict settlement and are trying to reinforce their positions in the region through interim reresolutions. They are trying to convince the Armenian side that nothing depends on Armenia, Armenia is isolated from various regional programs and the conflict must be settled soon. That is not the way it is. The NKR conflict settlement depends on the Armenian side and cannot be resolved without the consent of the Armenian side,” said Vagharshak Harutyunyan.

According to him, if Armenia approves an interim resolution without having guaranteed formulations on NKR status, the “mutual concessions” will be made on the account of the Armenian side and hurt Armenia.

According to Harutyunyan, if Armenia and NKR cannot maintain the military balance and lost to Azerbaijan’s war and if the Armenian side makes the wrong decision after careless evaluation, the NKR conflict will not have a pro-Armenian resolution.

Evaluating the actual phase of the negotiations, taking into account the UN and EU resolutions, Armenia’s willingness to make concessions, as well as Azerbaijan’s war declarations and position on NKR status, Harutyunyan takes note of the fact that things are not looking too good for Armenia.

“However, it is still possible to prevent the danger and turn everything around if the administration agrees to interim solutions without the clear, guaranteed pro-Armenian resolution.”

Vagharshak Harutyunyan doesn’t believe that the Karabakh conflict will be resolved anytime soon. “No conflict like this is resolved within 10-15 years. It is going to take a long time and our main concern must be the pro-Armenian resolution of the conflict.”

General-lieutenant Vagharshak Harutyunyan believes that Armenia must do the following in terms of the Karabakh conflict settlement: it must always have a combative army and must secure the military-political balance. “That is the primary condition, which will secure victory not only on the battlefield, but also in diplomacy. Secondly, Armenia and Karabakh must be strong within and united. There shouldn’t be any loopholes and both countries must have legitimate authorities. Economy must develop on a regular basis. This is the basis of the pro-Armenian resolution of the Karabakh conflict. If concessions are made, they must be equal.”

As far as Turkey’s engagement in the region and rapprochement with Armenia are concerned, Vagharshak Harutyunyan believes that Turkey has simply changed its strategy.

“Leading an offensive policy for years without reaching the goals that it has set forth, Turkey has now changed its strategy taking into account its issues with the EU and the increase in its prevention of international recognition of the Armenian Genocide ad influence on the Karabakh conflict settlement.”