53 military and 3 civilians killed in border skirmishes in 11 months (video)
Tensions have grown on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan since December 4, but there is no probability of war, says political analyst Stepan Safaryan. Azerbaijan is not sure that it will win Armenia, besides; Azerbaijan will not be able to convince the international community of the legitimacy of the war. “Azerbaijan cannot start large-scale military operations; on the other hand, it will not give up the idea of causing big losses to Armenia. It seems Aliyev’s desire is to cause a great pain to our people,” Mr Safaryan told A1+. The sides suffered six casualties in the past ten days in the result of border tensions. The situation on the frontline has been most tense in 2015 since the establishment of the ceasefire. According to the Regional Studies Center, 19 soldiers died from both sides in 2003, while in 2014, 64 militants and 8 civilians were killed in border skirmishes. Fifty-three servicemen and 3 civilians have been killed from both sides in the past 11 months. “By escalating the situation on the border Ilham Aliyev wants to strengthen his position ahead of the meeting with Serzh Sargsyan,” says political analyst Shushan Khatlamajyan. “Azerbaijan is excited by the situation in Turkey and believes that it can now appear before the international community with a greater political capital,” she said. However, Turkey is unlikely to provoke active military operations in the South Caucasus which is largely believed to be under the influence of Russia. The latter will not allow it. “Russia will view any attempt to destabilize the situation as an action against its interests. We already hear it from the lips of Russian experts,” Mr Safaryan said. No progress is expected in the Karabakh conflict resolution in the near future, says Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Arman Navasardyan. He does not pin any hopes on the upcoming meeting between the two presidents. “I do not expect any breakthrough at the meeting, the sides may only reach an agreement on the withdrawal of weaponry,” he said. Mr Safaryan says the best thing we can do not is 'to bring Azerbaijan to a negotiating table.'
