No threat of Egypt scenario in Armenia?
The events in Egypt are not very likely to repeat in Armenia and other post-Soviet countries," claim experts at the Stratfor Research Center.
The following is stated in the report released by the Washington-based organization:
"There are no prerequisites for large-scale protests and disturbances in Armenia, though the Armenian National Congress headed by former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan is inspired by the events taking place in Egypt and has convened a huge rally on February 18."
Stratfor's sources say the opposition will be very inspired in the case of 10,000 participants. The American experts say the opposition will perceive the participation of even 1,000 people as a huge success and will push for further actions and they claim that only several hundreds of people were participating in the opposition's recent rallies.
"It is also unclear as to whether the opposition will be given the opportunity to hold a rally at Freedom Square. When Ter-Petrosyan's supporters revealed the plans in relation to the actions, the Municipality of Yerevan announced that the square will be occupied since athletic and cultural events are scheduled to take place from February 15th to March 15th," as stated in the report.
The experts at Stratfor have included three countries in the risk zone of the post-Soviet territory.
"There are some countries where the danger of political and social instability is rather large. However, those risks are in no way connected to the events in Egypt. Among those countries are Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan," says author of the report Eugene Chausovksy.
Touching upon the situation in Azerbaijan, the American expert notes that "the Azerbaijani government was under pressure before the events in Egypt". "The reason was the ban on wearing a chadra in middle schools which sparked complaints among believers. In addition, Azerbaijan's neighboring states are trying to take advantage of the religious issues, particularly Iran."
"Although the scenario in Egypt is not very likely to repeat in the post-Soviet territory, these countries can clash with merely local issues which will endanger the current regimes' political stability and the security of the people," states Eugene Chausovksy.
Radio Liberty
